What is that graph about?!

I've been a student of technology for many years, and I'm especially excited about the massive impact coming to our lives from the exponential growth of technology.

That graph shows exactly what it looks like. Moore's Law continues to hold: Double the computation speed and memory storage about every two years, at half the cost.

The challenge with grasping exponential change, is that we really have a hard time truly comprehending something that doubles every two years. When graphed, the line basically goes straight upward once the size get big. Double. Every two years.

I had a TRS-80 color computer when I was in High School in the early 80's. It had 4k of memory, and it cost over $400. It didn't have a monitor, but connected to a TV. I spent many hours "programming" little drawings, with very rudimentary "automation", in the BASIC language.

Fast forward to my return to Grad school in the late 90's, working long hours running a store for H-E-B and going to night school at Abilene Christian University. The World Wide Web had just landed for the average American. I had an IBM 486 computer and a dial-up modem, and I turned in my work online for many classes, while also doing research on the machine. Most people don't recall what it was like when you accidentally hit "download" on a file over 1mg in size...and it took over an hour for it to download! That was less than 30 years ago.

Ten years later, I was carrying a Blackberry phone when the first Iphone smart phones landed. Only 15 years ago, our mobile plans charged us by the text, and we had to be careful not to download too much data or charges were crazy.

I highly recommend you do some reading to prepare yourself for what's coming, because the next 10 years are going to be simply incredible. Here is a short list I recommend:

1. Start with Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near. I recommend it over the newer The Singularity is Nearer, although I bet if you're like me, you'll end up reading both. Ray has worked in technology since the 60's, and he predicted all of this in this book in 2001. Yes, he predicted smart phones. Yes, he predicted Artificial Intelligence and the coming AGI that will pass the Turing test. And so far, we are on track or perhaps even moving faster than he predicted. When you read about the coming decade, I promise your hair will stand on end. When the massive AI datacenters in use today double again in capacity and speed, for half the cost, by 2027, can you really imagine what those new AI systems will produce?

2. Be scared. Read all three of Yuval Noah Harari's books. Nexus, in particular, will give you a really good scare about just how bad things could get if we don't figure out the alignment and containment of the coming technology wave. When you consider it's not just AI and the coming AGI, it's also synthetic Biology technology, and robotics, and...and... these general technologies will work together to change our lives more in the coming decade than all of the change I've experienced since that first little computer in 1983.

3. For a more balanced view of the future, less optimistic than Kurzweil, but less scary than Harari, read The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman.

4. If you're like me, you'll likely find that you have to keep reading. I'm now just starting Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence by Max Tegmark. I'm sure I will add some points in an upcoming blogpost as I complete it.

So why am I talking about this on a website for my consulting business, www.rockingbarz.com ? Leading and strategic planning in this decade must take the exponential growth of technology into account!!!

The problem with any senior leader group in any business, is that we all think linearly!

We build five year plans based hopefully on "aggressive goals". If we've seen 5% growth since the pandemic kiss in the floral industry, we think we are aggressive planning for 8% to 10% growth. We take this same linear approach as we plan Hectares in cultivation, labor plans and training plans, Capitol planning for equipment, trucks, warehouse space, and we even think that way when think our technology will need to be "upgraded" to handle our business. This type of linear planning is doomed and will lead you down expensive rabbit holes and ultimately fail you!

• If you plan on buying trucks or any warehouse equipment, you better be thinking through when driverless trucks and equipment will be ubiquitous. Double the technology power and speed at half the cost. Driverless equipment will be the standard in three to five years. Are you preparing for this?!

  • Will you need more warehouse space or less?

  • How will your warehouse be configured? More dock space? Less?

  • How will your warehouse scheduling be impacted when you will know with extreme clarity exactly when each driverless truck will arrive at your warehouse for loading/unloading? How will this impact your full-time workforce both on and off holiday?

• How will your business by impacted by robotics and humanoid robots?

  • The average household will have a personal robot in the home within the next ten years. Middle and wealthy income homes will have one by 2030. The average cost will drop below $30,000 by then, but will likely be as cheap as your automatic dishwasher by 2035.

  • How will your products be purchased in that future? How will the end consumers use them? What changes will need to be made when every floral shop has a robotic helper?

• How will your supply chain be impacted when cameras and computers will be able to completely and expertly track the perpetual inventory of every stem of every flower bunch and bouquet, every vase, and every supply item real-time with complete accuracy?

I hope all of the above just makes your head spin and makes you begin to question every aspect of your business plan for the next three to five years.

The Leaders and companies that embrace exponential planning will be prepared to shift and adjust successfully through these massive changes. The rest will place ill-timed bets, will be surprised and not prepared, and many will fail. In this coming future, every business and organization is a technology company. Consider the fate of technology companies through the past 40 years of exponential change. Read The Innovators Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. Consider the fate of:

• Nokia Cell Phones.

• Blackberry Cell phones.

• Radio Shack and Realistic

• Sandisk memory sticks and floppy disks.

• Intel Pentium chips. (anybody wish they had invested in Nvidia?)

• Gateway computers

• Kodak cameras

• Texas Instruments graphing calculators

• NEC cash registers

Want to have an Expert advisor help you thing through these and their impact on your business plans? Reach out to me. I can help!

WWW.Rockingbarz.com